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In just four days James is facing the prospect of sleeping on the street. He was released from prison in August and given temporary probation accommodation in Somerset, but that is about to expire and he has nowhere to go. "It is scary," the 37-year-old said. "I am not asking for special treatment. But literally nowhere wants to help - I have contacted MPs, solicitors, probation and the council. I am quite tempted to just get myself recalled to prison because it is November. It is cold." Charities and probation staff have said that prisoners are at risk of being released into street homelessness, exposing a "fatal flaw" in Andy Burnham's plan to try to end rough sleeping in England by Christmas. With hundreds of prisoners being released early in England and Wales to try to ease prison overcrowding, there are concerns the number sleeping rough could start to rise just as the weather turns cold. Tania Bassett, from Napo, the trade union for probation staff, said most housing options were already full after the early release of prisoners in October, and there were major concerns about how they would house the next tranche of releases on 10 November. "There is this juxtaposition of releasing people into homelessness at the same time as Andy Burnham is saying we're going to solve rough sleeping," she said. "I think there is an assumption that probation can magically bring up houses for people to move into. But there is very little available and it is a big concern for our members." She said one member had been trying to find housing for 10 people who were released on 1 October, and many staff reported feeling overwhelmed. Andy Keen-Downs, chief executive of the Prison Advice and Care Trust (Pact), said: "Every single day we are seeing men and women coming back to prison because they did not make their probation appointment. And when we ask why, they say, 'Well, I was sleeping on a bit of cardboard'. That is still the daily reality." James said everyone he had met since living in the probation hostel had been released without an address, with many people sleeping in cars and on benches. He has a number of medical conditions, including epilepsy and PTSD, but has been denied temporary accommodation from Somerset council and has also been rejected from probation housing. He has two electronic tags - a GPS tracker that needs to be charged daily and an alcohol monitoring tag that needs to remain connected to a communication device. "How am I supposed to comply with these requirements while sleeping rough without reliable electricity or somewhere safe to put the equipment? Nobody has given me a satisfactory answer," he said. The government has introduced a "presumption of electronic tagging" for offenders released early, but Bassett said this could not happen if there was a high level of homelessness. Analysis by Pact showed the number of prisoners released into rough sleeping has increased by 130% in three years, rising from 6,040 in 2022-23 to 14,360 in 2025-26. Rough sleeping is now recorded in about one in seven prison releases, compared with around one in 10 three years ago, and the proportion of releases recorded as "no fixed abode" (homelessness and rough sleeping combined) has risen from 11.3% to 15.9%. Enver Solomon, CEO of the social justice charity Nacro, said he recently visited a prison that was aiming to ensure 84% of prisoners had a roof on release. "Which effectively meant they were accepting that 16% would be homeless," he said. "I think the government realises this is a critical part of the jigsaw, but it is taking time to work out what needs to be done to address it. And time is of the essence." Keen-Downs said that while Burnham's ambitions to end rough sleeping in England and his £874m funding boost were welcome, the lack of money for post-prison support was a "fatal flaw". "We need more money for beds, but we also need money for all the support services people need to get from the prison cell into the bed and stay in it," he said. Bassett said: "If there is not any money ringfenced to help prisoners, that is a real missed opportunity to end this never-ending cycle. We will be making strong representations to the chancellor for some of that money to go towards this specific issue." A spokesperson for Somerset council said: "While we cannot comment on individual cases, we have a statutory duty to work with people who are homeless or at risk of homelessness to assess their circumstances, provide appropriate advice and support, and explore all suitable accommodation options for them. We are committed to ending rough sleeping in Somerset, with our aim being to prevent homelessness wherever possible." A government spokesperson said: "We're working with councils and charities to tackle prison leaver homelessness, backed by record investment in probation and our drive to ensure anyone sleeping rough is offered a route off the streets or wider support by Christmas. Prison leavers can also receive support from specialist services after leaving temporary accommodation. "We're also training prisoners for work and partnering with hundreds of employers to help prison leavers move straight into jobs, so they can rebuild their lives and contribute to their communities."