Farage's Pyrrhic victory unlikely to rush Burnham - Taipei Times

• By Martin Ivens / Bloomberg Opinion

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In the battle between the bin and Nigel Farage, there was only ever going to be one winner. The leader of the populist Reform UK party romped home as expected in Clacton special election on Thursday last week against 33 joke candidates, including his main antagonist and media darling, Count Binface, a self-styled space warrior with a trash can on his head.

Farage failed to turn up for the result, citing security fears, but perhaps he wanted to avoid being photographed alongside Binface and the rest of the motley crew. The mainstream political parties all boycotted the ballot, called by Farage as his riposte to revelations about his peculiar funding arrangements.

Although Farage proclaimed vindication at the ballot box after winning 63 percent of the vote, Count Binface secured 27 percent. That need not worry the Reform leader: A substantial win is all he needed to make his point.

However, a parliamentary investigation into Farage's ￡5 million (US$6.82 million) gift from Christopher Harborne, a Thailand-based cryptocurrency billionaire, would resume, possibly triggering a second by-election that all parties would contest if Farage is found to have broken the rules by not declaring the payment in a timely fashion.

Reform needs to rebuild momentum; it has just lost its 18-month lead in the opinion poll of polls, and its leader's personal ratings have taken a beating. To Reform's left, new Labour Party Prime Minister Andy Burnham has taken the lead following some nifty populist footwork of his own.

Kemi Badenoch has cheered up Conservatives disheartened by their terrible showing at the last election after a long, arid period in office. On Reform's exposed right flank, Restore Britain, a breakaway party, offers nastier solutions to stem the migrant tide, threatening to siphon off crucial votes in close-fought constituencies.

Siren voices, including the political strategist James Johnson, believe this is the time for Burnham to strike by calling an election while his opponents are weak and divided. It would solve the problem of his lack of a mandate, and capitalize on the "Burnham bounce."

The slow puncture of Farage's balloon makes this a propitious moment for Labour, advocates of a bold dash to the polls say. The electorate increasingly divides into two; anecdotal evidence suggests that the center-left/left-wing bloc would vote tactically for anyone to deny Reform's leader the keys to No. 10.

Farage might be down, but he is far from out — the wiliest, most durable operator in UK politics has survived worse setbacks. One opinion poll last week had Reform back in the lead.

Although immigration numbers are tumbling, tackling the boats bearing asylum seekers and migrants across the sea from France remains a hot-button issue with the voters. Burnham's proposal to house asylum seekers in middle-class neighborhoods — ostensibly to defang criticism that underprivileged parts of the country with cheap housing stock have been disproportionately hit by influxes of newcomers — could galvanize his enemies by creating a new diving line, even as it assuages his working-class voters.

Burnham spent his years in the wilderness — although he would not characterize his time as mayor of Greater Manchester thus — arguing for a new kind of politics. As I know from working with him on a cross-party commission on welfare, Burnham is genuinely committed to politically hybrid solutions to seemingly intractable problems, notably how to fund care for elderly people.

He is a genuine advocate of decentralizing UK's top-heavy government. I do not say that he will succeed in fundamental reforms of the Westminster system he inherits, but he has the self-confidence to try.

His purge of former British prime minister Keir Starmer's acolytes from their government roles confounded those who predicted there would be only cosmetic changes at the top.

My sense is that, as a manager with a new team in post, Burnham wants to make good on a pledge to do politics differently — and take that proposition to the voters.

However, timing a general election is an art, not a science. Former British prime minister Gordon Brown failed to exploit his temporary popularity by going to the country after ousting former British prime minister Tony Blair in 2007 in similar circumstances to Burnham's ascent, and was punished for his vacillation with a decisive defeat three years later.

On the other hand, former British prime minister Theresa May lost her Conservative majority in 2017 after calling an early election, despite opposing a left-wing Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who could not even command the confidence of his own parliamentary party.

Besides, if Burnham were to call an election, he would have to tell the voters whether he would tear up Labour's 2024 manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, value-added tax or national insurance to pay for his public spending commitments — hardly an appealing prospect.

Burnham himself probably does not know when he will call an election — he has more than two years to play with in Downing Street. However, both the man and his methods suggest he is not in any rush.

Martin Ivens is the editor of the Times Literary Supplement. Previously, he was editor of the Sunday Times and its chief political commentator. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.